Will Hizbollah Conduct A Preemptive Strike On Israel?

by Taxi

There is a current fear in Israeli military circles regarding a preemptive strike on Israel by Hezbollah, as warned by Hassan Nasrallah in his speech that followed the Israeli-occupied Golan strike and counter-strike between the the two foes back in January 2015.

In the past three days, two articles about Hezbollah were disseminated  by Aljazeera Arabic and the Israeli media.  One was about an alleged IDF strike against both Syrian and Hezbollah missile bases in the Syrian side of Qualamoun.  The second article allegedly revealed, through Google-Earth, the location of Hezbollah’s drone depots and their landing strip in Bekaa Valley, east Lebanon.

Speaking with a reliable source about the drone depot story, I was informed that in fact drones don’t need a landing strip for take-off:  a knoll or a mount of raised earth will suffice for a successful drone take-off.  This is essential proof that the story is bogus.  A poor piece of propaganda from the supposed ‘masters of deception’ in Tel Aviv.

And regarding the Aljazeera piece on the alleged IDF strikes on Syrian and Hezbollah missile bases (which other global media picked up and chewed on for 48 hours), no confirmation of this strike has been made public by Israel, Syria or by Hezbollah.  My source on this story tells me that this one may very well be bogus too; adding that his local informant has assured him that no one in villages in the vicinity of the alleged strike has heard any loud explosions in their hills recently – and not for quite some time, actually.

Begs the question here: why are Israel and the Islamist Aljazeera coordinating an anti Hezbollah propaganda campaign?

My source breaks it down like this:  Israel is deeply fearful of a preemptive Hizb strike against Israel proper, a strike that would initiate a full on regional war by the Levant Axis of Resistance against the Zionist state – a war that is predicted to create a mass exodus of Jews out of Israel and send the ‘start-up nation’ back to the stone ages, regardless of the damage that Israel can inflict on it’s enemies – a regional war that could also possibly see the destruction of Israel itself as we know it.

With the threat of a preemptive and lethal Hezbollah attack in mind, Israel simply cannot sit still and just do nothing. Israel cannot wait for a preemptive strike against its territory before it acts and is therefore now looking for an opportunity to strike out at Hezbollah, but with minimum detrimental repercussions to itself.  Except… there is no such thing as “minimum repercussions’ in a battle with the Hizb anymore.  Yet Israel will  still attempt a measured (but symbolic) strike, a-la Qualamoun style, repeatedly testing the waters with Hezbollah for lack of any other option.  Except, again, there is no longer any assurance that Hezbollah, once attacked by Israel, will confine its response to only Israeli military targets outside of Israel, as stated and confirmed by Nasrallah himself.

Israel presently reasons that a current attack may be opportune as Hezbollah is busy ‘entangled’ in battles in Syria and Iraq, rendering the Hizb’s presence in the southern Levant somewhat weakened.  But this is a false assumption, as proven by Hezbollah’s swift and solid counter-attack in the Golan back in January.

Israel also reasons that an attack against Hezbollah right now would get full regional support from Saudi Arabia and other Arab oil theocracies that are already deeply hostile to Hezbollah and are currently engaged in a proxy war in Yemen against Iran, Hezbollah’s main supporter.  But this Israeli calculation too is problematic as the Hizb has already achieved a victory against the IDF back in 2006, despite Saudi Arabia and other oil Arab’s vociferous public disapproval.

The clear picture therefore is this:  Israel is cornered, fidgety and looking to turn the tables, while Hezbollah are silent, still, and waiting.